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Translation of the Libyan Constitutional Union
Chairman’s
Interview with Asharq Al-wast Newspaper
Mohamed Ben
Ghalbon to Asharq Al-Awsat :
“Gaddafi will head for Sirt
if he
loses his grip on Tripoli”
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The
Chairman of the Libyan Constitutional Union: |
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“External involvement in
Libya is
farfetched and the talk of regional Islamic mini states is
directed to the West”. |
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Mohamed Ben Ghalbon |
Friday 22nd February 2011 (No.
11777)
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In an exclusive interview with Asharq Al-Awast,
Ben Ghalbon said that Gaddafi’s threats that Libya would turn
into terrorist Islamist states under the control of Al Qaeda,
was made to cause anxiety and alarm in the West; and confirmed
that this scenario is totally unfounded. |
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Q: How do
you envisage the prospects of the present turmoil in Libya? And
would it be prolonged?
A: The Libyan revolution is at its
beginning and the Libyan people have now been liberated from the
shackles of terror which fettered them for decades. They have broken
the barriers of fear and dared to spit in the face of their
tormentor. They have reached the point of no return and there is no
way back now. These are the facts that escaped Gaddafi and his son
Seif when the latter promised a constitution and a civil government
within 48 hours of his address to the nation. He asked the
protestors to empty the streets and go back to their homes without
promising them any assurance of amnesty if they complied.
This is added
confirmation of the limitation of their ability to comprehend the
extent of the predicament they are in and appreciate its dire
consequences. Had the Gaddafis any measure of sense, they
would have realized that the unarmed people, who took to the streets
and defied them, would not give their security agencies a chance to
arrest and execute their sons in public squares (as they did in 1976
and 1984), especially now that the people have raided military camps
and seized weapons.
Q: How do
you appraise Gaddafi’s latest speech?
A:
The terrorist stance taken by Gaddafi in his speech will change the
revolution into a crisis unless effective and immediate pressures
are exerted on him by the International community. For Gaddafi’s
power base comes from the security brigades controlled by his sons
and from the Special Forces in what is known in Libya, as the
“middle region.” The people achieved victory over the security
brigades however; the middle region is still not involved in
confrontations up to now.
Q: How did
this happen?
A:
Let me tell you about the middle region (in Libya). This region, as
the name suggests, is situated in the middle of the country and it
is where Gaddafi’s tribe (Al Gaddafis) lives with their allies in
the neighboring areas with Sirte being the capital of the region.
During the last two decades, Gaddafi spent incredible amounts of
wealth to bind the tribes in the region into alliances with his own
tribe. He gave generously, awarded many with prominent government
positions, and met their wishes of services and advantages over the
rest of the public. Gaddafi made Sirte a capital with all the
modern facilities fit for an important capital city. He did so
despite the fact that Sirte is, in reality, far from every
significant spot in the country where historically established
capital cities such as Tripoli and Benghazi exist. The decision to
make a capital out of Sirte was surprising and people could not see
a convincing reason. Gaddafi embarked on developing the middle
region as if to add a fourth province to the three Libyan provinces:
Tripoli, Cyrenaica and Fezzan.
However, Gaddafi was in fact
preparing the region for circumstances such as those we see in the
present situation. In addition to the above, he also established a
substantial air base and an advanced sea port in the area and built
one of the largest special response army units (crack troops) in the
country with soldiers from his tribe and their allies. These
special units received advanced training, were equipped with the
best weaponry he could buy and their members enjoyed the most
generous monetary rewards in the country.
No doubt Gaddafi is considering
certain options. One of these would be to deploy his forces in the
middle region to enforce his reign on the towns which rejected his
rule and rose against him. This would be the only civil war likely
in the country. That is, a conflict between the rebelling majority
of the Libyans, (with tribes and towns sadly separated by vast
distances which hamper their amalgamation into a proficient unified
power) and the forces loyal to Gaddafi made up of members of his
tribe and their allies. The allies will now be expected to honour
the conditions of the pacts with Gaddafi for which they had received
rewards in advance.
Q: Does
Gaddafi have any other alternatives?
A:
The alternative to which Gaddafi may turn to is to move to Sirte if
he loses control of Tripoli. His forces will seize control of the
oil refineries and seaports in Brega, Sidra and Ras Lanuf situated
near the middle region which is isolated from other inhabited areas
by vast expanses of desert. He could reign over the small province
(an Emirate) in control of the country’s oil and protected by forces
equipped with the latest weaponry and training. Leaving the rest of
the country consumed in the fire of its own revolution without
water, electricity or a functional system to manage its affairs.
Q: What
would he bet on in this case?
A: Gaddafi will bank on the oil
companies assisting him to protect their interests. Similarly, he
will bank on the West dealing with him as they have willingly done
so in the past; assuming in the present harsh economic conditions
the West does not have the will to do without his oil. If the oil
companies and the West deliver, the crisis in Libya will go on for a
long time and worsen.
It’s highly probable that his tribe
might refuse to provide him with shelter or obey his orders.
This scenario is possible as the Gaddafis have in the past two
decades confronted him more than once with disapproval of some of
his actions. And he has punished many of them for daring to voice
their disapproval. One must remember that the Gaddafis tribe is one
of the constituents of the Libyan people with an honorable history
of raising arms, together with their allies the Wirfalla tribe,
against the excesses of the Garamalli dynasty rule in the country 3
centuries ago (1717-1835).
Yet another possibility is that
once the Colonel, who is known for his cowardice and narcissisms,
senses danger nears his own person, he will rapidly lose his false
composure and flee the arena.
Q: Do you
expect foreign intervention?
A: Foreign intervention is totally
unacceptable and is most unlikely. Particularly in light of the
failures and consequences of the Iraq war and the disappointment of
that experience.
Q: Who in
your view is managing the revolution inside the country?
A:
The beauty of this blessed revolution is that it surprised even
those members of Libyan public who initiated it. No one could
imagine the speed with which it spread nor the extent of its power.
It is a revolution that generated its own momentum. No one outside
the country has planned it, nor is managing it.
Q. What about
the position of the Libyan opposition outside Libya?
A:
The Libyan opposition in exile is now following behind the
revolution, supporting and aiding it. The opposition abroad neither
ignited nor have any influence over it.
Q: How do you
view the position of Saif al-Islam, the son of Gaddafi?
This boy has squandered his last
chance to rule Libya by his speech last Sunday and the attitude he
chose to take in that speech. All his efforts to appear as the
polished and accepted face of the regime in the past years went up
in smoke. The Libyan people saw very clearly that he was merely the
other face of the same rusty coin. When he threatened and jabbed his
index finger at the Libyan people as if they were his slaves, they
recognised the arrogance, tyranny and conceited face of his despotic
father. Saif demonstrated that he is untrustworthy and unreliable.
He also showed a serious lack of comprehension of the situation.
This cemented (if anyone really needed proof) how inept he is, and
how incapable he is of ruling the country.
Q: Do you
fear Islamists taking control, as Gaddafi and his son claimed, of
the country’s affairs later?
A:
I believe that the threat made by Gaddafi of the collapse of the
country and its turning into small Islamite provinces was a scare
tactic, mainly directed at the Western world to alarm them that (if
Gaddafi is no longer in control) Libya’s oil and its resources will
fall into the hands of fundamentalist groups. This scare tactic is
aimed at the Western world to coerce them into supporting his rule.
The Libyans know very well that this scenario can never happen and
there are no indications of its possible occurrence.
http://www.aawsat.com/details.asp?section=4&issueno=11777&article=609860&state=true
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